Tag Archives: ebooks

Somebody Gets It (Sort Of)

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Frédéric Filloux in Monday Note focuses on ebooks as the “giant disruption.” Notes Filloux:

In less than a year, the ground has shifted in ways the players didn’t foresee. This caused the unraveling of the book publishing industry, disrupting key components of the food chain such as deal structures and distribution arrangements.

Filloux further identifies the “culprit” in this drama. Amazon.

Money quote:

For authors, the growth of e-publishing makes the business model increasingly attractive. Despite a dizzying price deflation (with ebooks selling for $2.99), higher volumes and higher royalty percentages change the game.

I think Filloux is being a little optimistic (proponents of giant disruptions invariably get carried away with themselves) — forgetting that while there is room for more “success stories” like Amanda Hocking, opening the stadium doesn’t mean everyone will turn into a Tom Brady. [Let's not forget that Amanda Hocking opted for a traditional publisher once her success was established; it was too much work for her to do everything a publisher normally does. She wanted to focus on writing books.]

Filloux also forgets the promotional role traditional publishers play. Can Amazon get me on the talk shows? Will they? Do they even care?

Back in the day, Penguin got me on the Sally Jessy Raphael show to promote “Butcher, Baker.” It was a big deal. That kind of publicity is hard to buy.

Dear Amazon, Apple, B&N…

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As I’ve said elsewhere, this eBook format thing is crazy. Now that the industry has roughly settled on the EPUB format, however, it might be time to start thinking about other things. Like our readers.

I know that you, Dear Amazon, Apple and B&N, are positioning yourselves as the new gateway to those very readers. You’ve had some success. Enough success that we’re already learning about the next generation of “e-readers.” Our children. Some of them, according to a recent Bowker survey covered by Laura Hazard Owen, are using iPads and eReaders. That’s good news.

But it’s no time to declare victory; a closer look reveals that some daunting obstacles remain.

Market for 0-12 Year Olds

  • The eBook market for 0-12 year olds seems to have considerable upside. Kids in this demographic think eBooks are “fun and cool,” cost less and make them want to read more. Not only that, but parents are sharing their tablet and eReader devices with their children — and handing them down as they upgrade.
  • Caveat: Only 37 percent of children’s books are purchased new, while 34 percent are hand-me-downs. Almost ten percent are borrowed from the library.
  • Caveat: Parents want to see books identified by grade level. Right now, that’s hit and miss on your download sites. Mostly miss.

Market for 13-17 Year Olds

  • This demographic lags behind all others in eBook adoption. Only 8 percent prefer eBooks compared to 66 percent who prefer print. There’s lots of upside here. Well, sort of…
  • Caveat: “Teens like using social technology to discuss and share things with their friends, and e-books at this point are not a social technology.”
  • Caveat: Teens are increasingly on record that eBooks are too restrictive, with 14 percent saying so in 2011, compared to 6 percent in 2010. Those are not frighteningly negative numbers. Yet. But they’re trending in the wrong direction.

What’s to be done?

Dear Amazon, Apple and B&N

  • Please fix the eBook lending mess. I know it means working with traditional publishers. Big prizes will go to whoever fixes this first.
  • Add the ability to readily attach grade-level information to EPUB and MOBI files. This one should be obvious.
  • Add social networking functionality to your eBook reader apps. As I write this, Facebook has 845 million monthly active users. While the value of those users is still being assessed (we’ll know more post-IPO), that’s a big starting point for sharing. Go there. Get there. While you’re at it, think Google+, too.
  • Enable in-app book discussions, not just for teens, but book clubs too. I say this from the perspective of someone who’s recently been asked to speak to a book club about “Butcher, Baker,” 20 years past its initial publication. (Hey, those movies have a way of renewing interest in almost forgotten things.) I’m not a huge fan of Apple’s Ping, but it points to an opportunity outside the Facebook-Google+ realm.

eBook Reality vs. Optimism

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I am on record as someone who believes the eBook will ultimately rule the waves — until the next “big thing” comes along. Sometimes it’s nice to get a little slap of reality.

A recent study by Bowker and the Book Industry Study Group shows that last year’s eBook growth was, as Laura Hazard Owen points out on mocoNews, “Incremental, Not Exponential.”

  • “The number of book buyers who also purchased an e-book increased by 17 percent in 2011, compared to 9 percent in 2010 – well below the 25 to 30 percent growth that some had hoped for.”
  • “Seventy-four percent of book buyers have never bought an e-book (and 14 percent of those actually own an e-reader or tablet but choose not to use it to read e-books.”

If there is cause for optimism, though, it’s in these two numbers:

  • “E-books now make up 26 percent of adult fiction purchases, compared to 11 percent of children’s book purchases and 3 percent of cookbook purchases.”
  • “Meanwhile, e-book power buyers make up 35 percent of the overall e-book buying population, but they drive 60 percent of overall e-book purchases. In other words, about a third of the overall buyers drive two-thirds of overall purchases.”

The latter figure compares to print power buyers, who make up 22 percent of the overall print book-buying population, and drive 53 percent of print book purchases overall. So there’s some room there for non-power buyers to make a larger overall contribution to eBook sales.

Oh, and the other cause for optimism?

Recent analysis from the esteemed Horace Dediu shows that if the iPad were its own company, it “would be the largest PC vendor.” Dediu adds that the iPad “competes for time and purchase decisions across all computing alternatives and though many times it’s additive, it is also substitutive and will become increasingly so.”

Horace Dediu: Units Shipped (iPad Included)

Although analysts keep saying so, and it remains more promise than reality, I think that other companies will eventually add to the tablet market in ways they haven’t heretofore. Microsoft’s Windows 8 tablets (which they insist on calling slates; they’ll get over it), should be a credible entry in this category, for example.

The takeaway here is that the PC will increasingly look like a tablet. Everything else will look like a truck. As the tablet becomes more ubiquitous, book purchases should follow; hey, you can carry a library on a single device and you can read almost anywhere (not recommended for the bath, but you can take them to bed).

Yeah, ok… Still a long ways to go… One shouldn’t forget those seventy-four percent of book buyers who’ve never purchased an eBook. Or the format and distribution battles that don’t seem likely to end soon. But doesn’t that mean there’s plenty of upside? Doesn’t it?

The End of Print?

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Long-term there’s no future in printed books. They’ll be like vinyl: pricey and for collectors only. 95% of people will read digitally. Everybody in publishing knows this but most are in denial about it because moving to becoming a digital company means laying off like 40% of our staffs. And the barriers to entry fall, too. We simply don’t want to think about it.

The above quote is from an anonymous publisher, who unburdened herself to writer Sarah Lacey. Sobering words. And at the heart of it is the observation that, unlike traditional print publishers, Amazon does think about the digital transition. A lot.

We’ve written about it before. Skirmishes over publication rights as they relate to Amazon’s eBook lending library. Legal battles over eBook pricing. Accusations of collusion between Apple and the Big Six publishers. In all of this, Amazon is either in the middle of it or standing close by.

As our anonymous publisher notes, the battle lines are primarily being drawn at eBook pricing — and author advances.

When ebooks started, we were pricing ebooks at the same price as the print book, and Amazon was selling them all for $9.99. So they were losing like $3-$4 per book. And they weren’t doing it simply to move Kindles, since they don’t actually make any money on the Kindle unit sales… I think they actually intend to keep print books at their current prices, and they want ebooks to be even cheaper. What they’re actually targeting is the publishers’ margin.

As many authors realize, it’s a select few celebrity writers who keep the lights on. They are the publishers’ margin, since they rake in big bucks and essentially subsidize everyone else. According to anonymous, Amazon is targeting these authors; we’ve said that ourselves. As tribute to how serious they are, they’ve signed Larry Kirshbaum to run their publishing arm. “He’s a savvy vet with 30+ years of publishing experience–and they have some editors, too. And they’ve been paying a ton of money for books.”

Well, not for all books. Let’s stay with the celebrity writer here. Amazon is paying lots of money for those books. Prices that few publishers can afford. Millions instead of six figures. Anonymous: “We can’t pay $1 million for books anymore. Amazon could probably afford to lose $20 million/year in their publishing arm just to put the other publishers out of business.”

I’m with Sarah Lacey when she says she doesn’t feel sorry for the publishing industry. But I am not fond of living in a one-company town either. Some commentators, notably John Gruber, are looking at Apple as the savior on a white horse.

Says Gruber: Apple’s opportunity with books is that there’s already a dominant money-winning bully at the table: Amazon.

The problem with that horse is it is now saddled with lots of legal baggage. Specifically, the U.S. DoJ, the European Commission and a host of states are all investigating possible collusion in eBook pricing. Apple is at the center of that investigation, along with the Big Six publishers; some people in legal circles think they’re the bully.

What to do? Lacey suggests a new publishing model will arise out of the ashes of the old. I suspect that Apple will be part of that, as their iBooks Author and textbook initiatives suggest. Building a better toolset will make it stupid-easy for authors to get onto Apple’s iBookstore; on that front, Amazon is still in the dark ages.

But the onus is still on the Big Six. Or, more precisely, their disaffected executives. Oh wait. I’ve said that before, too. It bears repeating.

The best strategy at the moment is for publishers to get their own houses in order, so they can take advantage of emerging opportunities. That means aggressively embracing new technologies and alternative distribution mechanisms. And building alliances that spread, not concentrate, opportunity.

Pub Options & Tools

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I just finished the first draft of a new book. More on that later… For now I want to concentrate on “next steps.” By which I mean the publishing process.

I have a literary agent so that’s taken care of. But, of course, the entire “digital vs. analog” question is before me. As I’ve said elsewhere, all options are in play; I prefer reach, which means both print and all (most?) eBook formats will be supported. That said, a recent piece on “the rise and fall of personal computing” by Horace Dediu caught my attention:

Horace Dediu the rise and fall of personal computing

The above graph essentially shows mobile platforms overtaking the PC. That has strong implications on how we access information going forward. We know, for example, that mobile platforms are ideal for media consumption. We also know that eBooks are the growth component in the publishing industry. That, along with speculation that Apple is coming out with a much-anticipated ebook creation app AND Amazon’s new-found commitment to HTML5, tells me one thing:

The real action is in the ebook space. And given the trend lines, that is not about to change anytime soon.

Which, naturally, makes me wonder what Apple’s new app will do to my creative workflow. Right now, I use Microsoft Word for book creation. It’s an old stand-by in the publishing industry and it’s got industrial-strength features. But it does virtually nothing for the creation of eBooks. And that, my friends, is a problem.

What if Apple brings out another tool that makes for a seamless transition between publishing and eBook formats? What if that same tool offers lots of features that support eBook interactivity? Oh, oh… Danger straight ahead…

eBooks Outsell Print (sort of)

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All those tablets and eReaders that consumers unwrapped over the holidays? Not surprisingly, they have shown up in book sales. Bob Minzesheimer at USA Today reports that, for the first time, eBook versions outsold other versions of books among the top-50 titles. Here’s the money quote:

The latest list, based on sales data from Dec. 26 to Jan. 1, shows a remarkable burst of digital book sales after e-readers were unwrapped as gifts — for 42 of the top 50 titles, the e-book editions were the most popular format. The previous high, in July, was 25 of the top 50.

Not that the print book is going away. Though eBook sales doubled to 20% of market share during 2011, up from 10%, the other 80% is still accounted for by… print books. The big takeaway is that readers have more choices — and the ability to adapt technology to their needs. We’ve long known that tablets are great for “on the go” consumption, for example. One recent University program that used iPads as a teaching aid found at least one student who made good use of the eBook’s instantaneous download characteristics:

One student read 140 books during the semester with the Kindle app. (Yes, 140. The number left the rest of us slack-jawed.) She said, though, that if she were choosing a device for reading e-books, she’d buy a Kindle. It is cheaper, is easier on the eyes and offers fewer distractions than an iPad.

Can you imagine what it would be like for that student to lug even a portion of those books in her book bag?

Let it be said, however, that tablets and eReaders still have a ways to go in the academic world. Damon Poete reports on a recent study at the University of Washington that found students using eReaders want more support for note-taking, reference checking and viewing figures, all things that the current generation of eReaders do poorly.

That has something to do with the way eReaders were designed. Notes study co-author Charlotte Lee, “Most e-readers are designed for leisure reading — think romance novels on the beach.”

More than that, the study’s conclusion is provocative: “[the] Kindle DX is more likely to replace ‘paper-based reading than their computer-based reading.’” Hmmm… There goes that trendline again…

Back to the Audience

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As an author, you think about your audience. Your “dear reader.” Or at least you should. Even if it’s only your inner audience. After all, there’s a reason you’re committing all those words to the page. A message, perhaps?

But getting your work published adds another dimension or two, enough so that you start to think perhaps the publisher is your audience. I say this from the perspective of someone for whom it took eight years from inception to publication. Twenty rejection slips. A complete rewrite of the entire work. The publisher held the keys to the kingdom and was, in a very real way, an arbiter between the author and her audience.

The rise of the internet and eBooks is supposed to change all that. Chris Meadows over at TeleRead takes it as a given that writers whose books the Big Six won’t take can sell directly to customers via Amazon, Apple and Barnes & Noble. The counter-thought, here from publisher Teresa Nielsen Hayden, is even more provocative:

Stated axiomatically: If you’ve written a book that people want to buy and read, you stand an excellent chance of getting it published by a real commercial publisher. If you haven’t, no clever workaround publishing scheme is going to help, because there’s no way to force readers to buy and read books they don’t want.

The backdrop here is whether or not publishers — traditional publishers — really care about “dear reader.” The accusation, which some in the industry (like Brett Sandusky) are taking seriously, is that publishers are not as customer-focused at they should be. If not, the argument goes, the customer is being underserved. This creates an opening for others. Are independent publishers more attuned to customers? Will they take over while the giants fail? Is Amazon poised to play a similar role?

The critical question is whether traditional publishers still hold the keys to the kingdom. Or even matter.

Certainly the pressure is being felt on all sides. Publishers are getting hit over agency agreements, which drive up prices. Authors are finding their work potentially highjacked by Amazon, which is pushing wholesale pricing at a cost to author royalties. Some customers are having second thoughts about eBooks themselves (though eBook sales are up 202%).

The tragic thing is what’s being lost in this conversation. All the forgoing “pressure” is focused on customers and the bottom line. Consumers want cheaper books. Authors want higher royalties. Publishers want profits.

But there is an older relationship that, I think, is more important. As an author, writing for your audience is paramount. They are more than mere customers. They’re your first duty. If you just write for the money, you’re a hack. Let me repeat. A hack. Good publishers — great publishers — recognize and support these obligations. And find writers whose work deserves a wider audience because it actually has something to say.

Teresa Nielsen Hayden puts it better than I: “Being focused on readers and their reactions is a marker for people who work in the commercial publishing industry. Reader-fixation is water, and [they spend] decades being a professional fish.”

Is the model that Hayden defends the only way? Heavens no. The internet is there, eBooks aren’t going away. But you better write the best book you can.

Tablet Update: iPad, Kindle Fire, Win 8

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I care a lot about the tablet category because, quite selfishly, I see them (and eBooks) as a way out of the book sales doldrums. According to the Association of American Publishers, eBooks sales grew by 202% in the past year, while the Trade Category declined by 34%. It ain’t rocket surgery to figure out which way the wind is blowing.

So it is with great interest that I find not one but two reports out today, one about tablet sales, the other about tablet projections. Two very different reports, one with a consumer focus, the other with a business focus. Maybe not so different…

THE FIRST is from Amazon, continuing their positive reports for Kindle sales through the holidays. Amazon are typically cagey in their report, saying only that “customers purchased well over 1 million Kindle devices per week.” Those numbers are being helpfully interpreted as 4 million Kindle units in December, most of them the new Fire, according to Casey Johnston at Arstechnica. That projects to about 6 million units sold since the new Kindle Fire became available in mid-November.

By contrast, Apple is projected to sell 13 million iPads through the last quarter of 2011, according to JP Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz, in a note that adjusted iPad numbers down from 13.3 million because of strong Kindle sales.

THE SECOND report comes from market research firm NPD. They’ve had some dodgy reports in the recent past, including one that excluded iPad sales from its research estimates. Ok, bygones be bygones. Whatever. NPD are reporting now on tablet purchase considerations in the business sector over the next 12 months. Their findings?

Nearly 75% of U.S. small and medium businesses (SMB) plan to purchase tablets over the next twelve months. That number goes higher as business size grows; among larger firms, 89 percent plan to purchase new tablets in the next 12 months. Average spend ranges from a high of $39K to a low of $2K (the latter firms with under 50 employees). Most of those tablets will be the iPad.

“Businesses of all sizes appear to be determined to capitalize on the tablet phenomenon,” said Stephen Baker, vice president of industry analysis at NPD. “The iPad, just as it is in the consumer market, is synonymous for ‘Tablet’ in the business market, leaving Apple poised to take advantage of the increased spending intentions of these SMBs. NPD’s research shows that iPad purchase preference is higher among larger firms than smaller ones, which is an important indicator that Apple is gaining traction far outside its typical consumer space.”

Given the “consumerization of IT,” we also expect a fair number of tablets to enter the business market through the hands of employees. We’ve seen it before. Which leaves us with a few questions.

  • Will the Kindle Fire Go Enterprise?
  • Too soon to tell, but if past is prologue, one will see employees bringing their Fire to work. The biggest near-term hurdle for the Fire is its lack of cellular (3G-4G) support, which in the past has enabled employees to get around corporate WiFi restrictions.
  • What about Windows 8 Tablets?
  • At least one analyst, Bernstein Research, is bullish on Windows 8 tablets. According to Todd Bishop, Bernstein believes Windows 8 tablets to be most attractive to business users, in part due to compatibility with existing line-of-business apps.
  • It’s not the big market chunk that the consumer opportunity represents, but it should give Microsoft a toe-hold where other competitors (Android, anyone?) have struggled failed. I am less optimistic that these tablets will come through the employee back door, however. I am predicting it’s an IT purchase all the way.

We shall see.

Kindle Fire: By the Numbers

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The Kindle Fire is emerging as a certified hit for the holiday season. With a few lumps of coal thrown in for good measure. Here’s a look at the Kindle Fire, by the numbers.

No big surprise on the last one, except that Android is continually positioned as an “open” platform. Which implies that Kindle Fire users should also be able to get to the Google Android Market. They can’t. I guess that’s what “forked” means.

The Things I Miss

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I have taken wholeheartedly to the eBook. The reasons are simple, really. The ability to grab new books instantaneously, for one. The joy of a library that always weighs a pound or less, no matter how large it gets. The cloud services that let me keep my place across devices — start on an eReader, move to my smartphone, then back to my eReader, never once losing track of where I left off.

One of my dear friends reminds me of something else. The things that are endangered by this new form:

“Not an e-book fan yet… I don’t want libraries or ‘book signings’ to go away.”

My friend’s comment hit me full force when I came across this wonderful tidbit in Fiction Writer’s Review, by Celeste Ng. Her piece answers a question I hadn’t bothered to ask: Why old books smell so good.

The explanation is quite elegant. Trees, the raw ingredient of paper, contain a polymer called lignin, which enables the tree to grow big and strong. As it turns out, lignin is also a source of vanillin. So when paper begins to break down, as it does in old books, it takes on the scent of that sublime South American orchid’s seed pod. Indeed, lignin has become a key source of artificial vanilla; here’s a bit of technical information for those so inclined.

This insight leads me to the larger list of endangered things, starting with the essential sensualness of books printed on paper, especially as compared to their digital counterparts.

There’s the finger-feel of the page. The visual sense of how far I’ve traveled, just from seeing where my thumb rests. The simultaneity afforded by the all-at-onceness of the object. The heft of the thing, even when it’s “only” a paperback. To simulate these things, the eBook resorts to a bag of tricks. Animations that mimic the turn of a page… Bookmarks that let me return to a particular spot. But the smell, the heft, the all-at-onceness… I miss ‘em. And, really, there’s no substitute…